14:33, Jan 23

Selectivv Index - increases in December, but the data do not inspire optimism.

Data for December 2019 show an increase in the Selectivv Handel index, i.e. the number of visitors to the analyzed retail locations month-to-month. Other indicators also recorded an increase in value: Selectivv Gas Stations and Selectivv Tourism.

Declines in visits to commercial locations in smaller towns

Selectivv Index in December - Trade amounted to 104.26 points at the end of the year (MoM change by + 5.30%). The increase is undoubtedly an effect of the holidays and increased purchases during this period. It is worth noting, however, that we observe declines when analyzing the data year on year. This fact may be a reason for the economic slowdown forecast by economists.

While in cities with more than 300,000 of residents, in the case of shopping malls and discounters, the value of the Index is at a similar level as last year, while looking at the other categories, we observe declines. This is especially visible in the data from cities below 300,000. residents. In the case of hypermarkets, this is a drop by as much as 22 points. Shopping malls in these locations recorded a year-on-year drop in footfall by nearly 10 points, and food discount stores by more than 7 points. 

Infographic: Selectivv Index in December - Trade
Index Selectivv Handel - current value / December 2019

The number of visits to gas stations at a similar level

The Selectivv Index in December shows a similar level when it comes to the number of visits to gas stations. The behavior of users of mobile devices in terms of visiting gas stations is more stable. We see a slight increase month-on-month and year-on-year, but it should be emphasized that the dynamics of growth is lower when comparing December 2019 to November 2019 compared to the corresponding data from 2018. The current value of the Selectivv Petrol Stations Index is 106.97 points, an increase of + 1.23%.

Increase in tourist visits in December

While the behavior related to visiting commercial establishments in Poland may be worrying, we observe an increase in visits to our country by foreign tourists, both in terms of the month-to-month and year-to-year comparison. The current value of the Selectivv Tourism Index is 103.35, which means an increase by 2.11%. The Selectivv Tourism 10 Index for the ten selected nationalities reached the value of 107.78 at the end of the year (an increase in the analysis m / m by + 3.39% and a drop y / y by -1.41%).

Summary

Summing up, there are some signs of an economic slowdown related to the decline in the number of visitors to retail outlets in towns below 300,000. residents. It remains to be seen in the coming months whether this trend will also apply to the largest Polish cities.

Methodology

The Selectivv Data Tank analytical and research department is responsible for developing the Selectivv Index and updating the data.

The research includes:

  • 310 commercial facilities (supermarkets, discount stores, shops in towns with less than 20,000 inhabitants, shopping malls).
  • over 130 petrol stations located in different parts of the country.
  • tourists (people with a foreign SIM card, with a phone language other than Polish, staying in Poland from 3 to 21 days).

What can smartphone data be used for?

Data from smartphones also allow to identify the customer profile of a given retail outlet, including the profile of competitors' customers. Constant monitoring of specific places allows you to determine the range of influence of the location, the day and night zone of users (where they live and where they work) and changes over time. Thanks to this, it is possible to make better business decisions.

The analysis of data provided by smartphones and tablets reflects real purchasing behavior, i.e. exactly what users do, not what they would like to do or what they think about. This allows for discovering current trends in the economy and their early detection.

Check the current Index at Selectivv Index

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